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Tensions in the Middle East are reaching a new peak, particularly in the context of the Iran-Israel conflict. This analysis highlights the strategic importance of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which are considered central to global oil trade. With 55 percent of global oil reserves and 39 percent of natural gas, the region is an indispensable energy center. However, the current escalation threatens to jeopardize security of supply and could intensify geopolitical power games, particularly against China. This article examines the background and potential consequences of this development.

1: The Persian Gulf as a Global Energy Center

Indispensable Resources

The Persian Gulf is a key factor in global energy supply. According to the analysis firm ECONOVIS, the region has 55 percent of global oil reserves and 39 percent of natural gas. Gulf countries account for 42 percent of global oil exports and 17 percent of gas production. These resources keep the global economy running, and any disruption could have massive repercussions for global stability.

Economic Dependence

The importance of these resources is reflected in the dependence of numerous countries. For countries without their own oil or gas reserves, the Persian Gulf is a lifeline. An escalation in the region could drive up prices, disrupt supply chains, and trigger economic crises. This dependence makes the Gulf a geopolitical powder keg.

2: The Strategic Role of the Strait of Hormuz

A Critical Trade Route

The Strait of Hormuz is the central artery of global oil trade. Around 90 percent of oil exports from the Persian Gulf pass through this narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. A blockade or disruption of this route would have catastrophic consequences. The security of supply for many industrialized nations depends on this route remaining open, especially in light of the current Iran-Israel conflict, which threatens stability.

Risk of Escalation

Tensions between Iran and Israel could directly endanger the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has threatened in the past to block this route in the event of a conflict, which would cause oil prices to skyrocket and cripple global supply chains. This has the potential to shift the geopolitical balance of power.

3: Shift in Energy Partnerships

China's Rise as an Energy Partner

Over the past 25 years, China has become the region's dominant energy partner. The country consumes 55 percent of exported oil from the Persian Gulf. This dependence underpins China's economic growth but increases its vulnerability to disruptions in the region. At the same time, supplies to the US have fallen by 72 percent and to the EU by 37 percent, altering the balance of power in the global energy market.

Western Withdrawal

The decline in oil imports to the US and the EU reflects a shift in global energy relations. This diminishes the West's strategic priority, while China is increasingly dependent on the stability of the Persian Gulf. This shift is turning the Middle East into a arena of geopolitical rivalries.

4: Conflict as a Leverage Against China

Strategic Importance for China

Stability in the Middle East is of vital importance to China, as the country is largely dependent on this region for its energy supply. This dependence represents a weakness that could be exploited by Western powers. An escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, which threatens the Strait of Hormuz, could severely impact China's economy and weaken its geopolitical position.

Geopolitical Power Play

The US and its allies could deliberately use the conflict to put pressure on China. Disrupting oil supplies would be an effective means of curbing China's economic and political ambitions. This would turn tensions in the Middle East into a global gambit using energy as a weapon.

5: Impacts and Perspectives

Global Consequences

An escalation in the Middle East could plunge the global economy into crisis. Higher oil prices, disrupted supply chains, and economic instability would be the result. Dependence on the Strait of Hormuz makes the global community vulnerable and highlights the need for a diversified energy policy.

A Turning Point with Global Dimensions

The Iran-Israel conflict and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz mark a turning point in tensions in the Middle East. With 55 percent of the world's oil reserves and 39 percent of its natural gas, the Persian Gulf is an energy center whose stability shapes the global economy. China's growing dependence and the West's withdrawal make the conflict a means of exerting pressure on Beijing. It is crucial to critically monitor these geopolitical maneuvers and prepare for the potential consequences of an escalation that could extend far beyond the Middle East.